Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 5.930212 7.051690 8.290336 9.754771 11.433479 13.292157 15.500109
2025-02-16 3.917940 5.328893 7.064434 9.332466 12.191710 15.648313 20.111519
2025-02-23 2.701977 4.151069 6.112330 8.905499 12.716530 17.662565 24.481721
2025-03-02 1.914425 3.293189 5.328897 8.457048 13.025467 19.318166 28.474025
2025-03-09 1.469636 2.799260 4.919544 8.398376 13.778418 21.562165 33.392885
2025-03-16 1.129358 2.373599 4.508157 8.229899 14.292928 23.457787 37.932686
2025-03-23 0.975287 2.227399 4.509946 8.691621 15.793275 26.905170 44.987101
2025-03-30 0.805618 2.004262 4.328151 8.800617 16.712175 29.511655 50.943437
2025-04-06 0.661256 1.791498 4.119256 8.816976 17.454698 31.873045 56.663818
2025-04-13 0.542288 1.599424 3.909569 8.790055 18.099648 34.102614 62.304454
2025-04-20 0.503482 1.585006 4.056901 9.460379 20.050260 38.647991 72.012107
2025-04-27 0.441735 1.495467 4.025778 9.765777 21.346904 42.154516 80.193699
2025-05-04 0.388359 1.416791 4.013176 10.125405 22.816984 46.134909 89.552712
2025-05-11 0.320185 1.274426 3.826091 10.090150 23.521376 48.816289 96.874965
2025-05-18 0.251566 1.104216 3.533529 9.774661 23.624781 50.401611 102.366865
2025-05-25 0.192419 0.938704 3.212681 9.337725 23.418218 51.374929 106.802062
2025-06-01 0.158079 0.845942 3.066406 9.291209 24.028319 53.939460 114.290187
2025-06-08 0.126449 0.747859 2.880434 9.113689 24.325752 55.903397 120.761652
2025-06-15 0.116522 0.737226 2.955626 9.619325 26.204996 61.135869 133.703627
2025-06-22 0.099468 0.685656 2.889940 9.738945 27.202292 64.636168 143.486388
2025-06-29 0.083220 0.628772 2.792863 9.757069 27.960012 67.687789 152.552137
2025-07-06 0.068919 0.573034 2.685254 9.727831 28.598033 70.524886 161.336999
2025-07-13 0.067052 0.587300 2.831971 10.458162 31.160605 77.590694 178.885902